Reflections On A Strong U.S. Economy And A Little Stir

 I moved to U.S. fifteen months back. I had a curiosity as to how the U.S. is doing in the past few years. I can say with certainty that U.S. is polarized, activated and galvanized with its economy stirred up in the past year or more. Just consider some stats which will hit this point home. The U.S. economy has added 4 million jobs since last year June - this year’s monthly average of 314,000 net job gains far exceeds even what was seen before the pandemic, by now the number of jobs added in the past 2.5 years at 13 million is more than any 4 year presidential term ever reflecting a stupendous recovery from pandemic, the unemployment rate has remained below 4% for seventeen straight months and is now at fifty-year low, the share of working-age Americans with jobs is highest in 20 years, inflation has come down by more than half in the past year from 9.1% to under 4% and the misery index – which is a sum of unemployment and inflation has fallen for a straight 12 months. This is just an outcome of a real catalytic reaction due to the presence of a strong catalyst within the American economic frontiers. 

The human losses due to the pandemic cannot be taken back. But the economy can be certainly re-opened, re-energized and taken back from what it was earlier. The recovery from pandemic, where the U.S. suffered the most has been sharp and at an incredible pace. It’s hard to see the V-shaped recovery in a major economy so fast so as to relegate the price of pandemic to an irrelevant transient spike in the annals of history. The pandemic definitely hit the U.S. hardest. In the early months of the pandemic crisis, tens of millions of people lost their jobs. While employment began to rebound within a few months, unemployment remained high throughout 2020. But the employment levels have not only reached pre-pandemic numbers in the following 2.5 years but also surpassed in magnitude by millions. That 13.2 million jobs have been added in the last 2.5 years is an indication of market resiliency and a testament to a strong market bottom-up. In a sense U.S. is taking off to a new plane and an increased volume which isn’t seen ever before. This is practical economics at play which should also outgrow the nation by itself. The labour market expansion seen between 2010 and 2019, when there were a record 100 months of job growth is a steady linear rise of curve or the best 100 months of expansion. The same has been the case for the past 30 months of recovery in labour market which outdid the pre-pandemic numbers. In a way, this can be the best thing that can happen to the economy which has crumbled with the huge pandemic human and capital loss.

 

The U.S. has the 10 best years after the recession in 2008-09. Let there be next set of 10 more best years after the contraction in U.S. economy due to covid pandemic. The past few years definitely signal the same and more than anything, everyone working in U.S. can be proud of taking the nation to new heights. This record in the past year or more and the key indices which reflect the stupendous rebound that churned the economy is more than a great achievement of the present administration at helm. For instance, a record number of people are busy in travel  as June 30th just a week back recorded 3 million passengers in air travel. This is highest for any single day, indicating air travel has recovered quite well from the pandemic. When a voluminous amount of people gets swayed by the favourable winds in the nation, there will be a boost to all major sectors including transportation, services and hospitality. This churning and the action by the great people of the nation is a positive response to the stimulus applied for the pandemic recovery. If people aren’t willing to react, there isn’t much any action will do from elsewhere.

 

The credit also goes to foreign nationals like me who have been working day in and day out in the open. The act can be small one like booking a cab or going to a super-market or visiting places or staying in a hotel etc. I daily go out and do something or the other adding to the economic activity. Every small act of working within the nation will add a small brick in building the larger economic narrative. For instance, when we purchase something or the other in a retail store almost regularly, it contributes to their cause. The retail sales garnered a 7% annual growth in 2022 over 2021, which is nearly double the pre-pandemic average retail growth of 3.6%. The projections for the year 2023 are also good with 4-6% annual retail sales growth over last year, with E-commerce having a banner year with a rise of 10-12%. The elements like me are spurring the moment with enhanced activity leading to a real buzz all around.

 

As I said, this gradual rise in the past year after all the months of slog is an achievement in itself. This is phenomenal and may this economic boom persist for many more years to come, to completely rise from the ashes of covid mishap. This spur in economic activity should also make the nation prepared to realize the American dream for scores of immigrants. The layoffs and job-cuts in technology should also die down, leading to realization of American dream for many more people like me. Among the wealthy G7 nations, U.S. is the only country which is doing very well. The US has had the highest gross domestic product growth over the last three years while also seeing inflation come down faster than most of those other wealthy countries. When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches cold. When this country is doing well, it transmits the good consequences to other nations as well. It is fixing the problem at the highest level to improve the conditions elsewhere. That is how the seeds of growth can lead to an abundant crop internally and that is how this economic harvest can have far-reaching repercussions externally. Finally, we can say that the nation is mobilized in its economy with whole-hearted participation from its pupils who all joined the binding central bandwagon which is rolling on unabatedly. Let this fever stays on for many more months and years for the advantage of every player in the nation.